As a young nation, Armenian society needs to develop infrastructures integral for statecraft. One of the most important attributes in governance is knowing how to control the narrative. This is done through: a) Identifying the message coming in; and b) knowing where that country stands geopolitically to recalibrate the right message for itself, its constituents, and its neighbors.
Who Controls the Narrative Controls the Outcome
“War is Deception.” This principle has been mastered by the Turks, who have dominated Western Asia for millennia through the Seljuks and the Ottomans.
To guard against deception, one needs to understand who they are, and their surroundings. A nation has difficulty keeping its rediscovered freedom after being occupied. It’s like a wild animal becoming domesticated, with its progeny reintroduced back to the wild. Once reintroduced, that animal no longer knows how to hunt. It no longer knows what it is.[1]
This analogy applies to Armenia. Armenia’s ruling “Nakharar” class has long been extinguished, first by the Byzantines, then by the Arabs, and finally, the Turks. Armenia’s ruling class mentality, which gave rise to fierce nations, such as the Hyksos and its domination of Egypt 3,000 years ago,[2] or Urartu, a state prophesied to bring the Assyrian Empire down,[3] has been replaced by a business-oriented mindset.[4] The business-oriented mindset is dangerous when it comes to governing a society, as its focus is on the “now,” and the bottom-line. [5]
In order to retain sovereignty, Armenia’s leadership must build infrastructure to prepare for 21st century foreign messengers. As technology changes, so too does the messenger and the target audience. Society has moved from the newspaper to social media, where immediate and unverified information is disseminated in a matter of seconds, appealing to raw emotion.[6]
Armenia’s recent revolution: “Velvet” or “Pied Piper” Revolution?
The key for any successful Armenian leadership [Diasporan or governmental] is to understand the many different narratives being promoted, as well as the medium promoting those messages, to protect those who belong to the Diaspora, Armenia, and Artsakh.
Western leaders have long understood the importance of narrative. There’s a reason why National Football League broadcasts are draped in imagery promoting the US military and patriotism, while being financed by the US government;[7] why “Google” has long partnered with the US government.[8] There’s a reason why China and Russia have begun to invest heavily in social media platforms such as Weibo and VK.com[9] to rival American platforms like Facebook or YouTube.
Armenia and its Diasporan organizations need to seriously evaluate what messages are being promoted, who is being promoted, and what they represent. No responsible leader provides a platform for famous reprobates to get “clicks” or immediate remuneration, even if it can be justified that certain famous reprobates bring attention to certain causes…[10]
There’s a reason why National Football League broadcasts are draped in imagery promoting the US military and patriotism, while being financed by the US government; why “Google” has long partnered with the US government.
The fair question that needs to be asked is, was Armenia’s recent revolution a “Velvet Revolution,” or a “Pied Piper Revolution”?[11] In order to put into in proper context, the analogy of the Pied Piper relates to the recent Revolution in Armenia where it was the youth that was targeted by foreigners.
I do not know the details of the everyday life of the average Armenian, or what prompted its Revolution. However, the parallels between Armenia’s recent Revolution is similar to the color revolutions in the former Soviet Bloc and Arab Spring.[12] The narrative of the aforementioned revolutions are pretty much the same; youth driven movements due to gloomy economic prospects and rampant government corruption. Corruption, economic decline, and election fraud all fed the popular frustration that fueled these revolutions,[13] but these and other injustices can be found in many other countries where no “democratic” revolutions occurred (think Saudi Arabia).
The common denominator with these revolutions is the utilization of new tools in the continued struggle between East and West. The US State Department “has taken a proactive stance in arming [] masses with advanced communications gear and training. With millions of dollars of grants, for instance, State has been financing “stealth wireless networks,” mobile “internet in a suitcase” systems, and software that protects the anonymity of cell phone and internet users in places like Iran, Libya, Syria, and China.”[14] The pattern emerging is Russia’s buffer states have been targeted one-by-one for regime change.[15]
Armenia is a minor buffer state between East and West, deepening its political and economic partnerships with Iran and Russia.[16] Global strategic think-tanks have observed that as long as Armenia was governed by Kocharian or Sarkisian, Armenia’s worldview would be lockstep with Russia’s.[17]
So where does Armenia lie?
Between East and West
Responsible statecraft recognizes that the perception of immediate neighbors is one of the most important attributes in order to survive war.[18] Armenian culture has long sought validation and acceptance as being European. This mentality needs a surgeon general’s warning: hazardous to your family and the values taught as a child.
The “pied-piper revolution” has seen some disturbing trends turning west. First is talk of withdrawal from the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.[19] Second are one-sided political arrests of “corrupt politicians” who bend toward alliance with Russia, and not the west. Most troubling are sentiments echoing one-sided concessions with Azerbaijan over Artsakh’s territorial integrity, such Armenian National Congress (ANC) member Zoya Tadevosyan proclaiming that “the liberated territories of Artsakh are actually occupied territories.”[20]
Armenian culture has long sought validation and acceptance as being European. This mentality needs a surgeon general’s warning: hazardous to your family and the values taught as a child.
These trends by the new government are dangerous, considering where Armenia is located. Armenia is West Asian, not European. Armenia is not, nor has ever been a European nation-state. This is fact. This is reality. To its west is Turkey, 80 million strong, militarized, Islamized, intent on reviving the Ottoman Empire. To its east is Azerbaijan, locked in bitter dispute with Artsakh over territorial integrity, while suffering an identity crisis between its Turkic and Shi’ite attributes. Iran to the south, with a hot/cold relationship with both Azerbaijan and Turkey. Georgia to the north acting as a bridge between Turkey and Azerbaijan, while alienating Russia at the expense of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for potential NATO accession. And Russia nearby, Armenia’s only guarantor of peace, but, acting in its own self-interests (as it should).
Showing weakness in the South Caucasus is deadly. The Republic of Armenia was prudent by not accepting the protocols when they were initially advocated for, despite the “business acumen” of certain leading Diasporan organizations.[21] One only need look at how Tayyip Erdogan changed his stance on Bashar Assad when it was expedient to do so,[22] or how Erdogan has been able to easily manipulate German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, a beacon of “western idealism,” into paying Turkey more for a refugee crisis Turkey itself incited.[23] (Maybe Europeans are the ones who need advice on governing their own affairs, and should mind their business).
Conclusion
The message being delivered to Armenians today is the same as a hundred years ago, except with new buzzwords and a new delivery system. Over a hundred years ago at the Congress of Berlin, Armenians were promised buzzwords like “human rights” and “nationalism.” We all know how that ended. Today, the word “corruption” is used to infiltrate Armenian society. We, as Armenian society need to learn to subdue emotions, and develop infrastructure to identify who the message is coming from, and why it is being sent. Only then can Armenian society begin to govern its affairs properly among the growing challenges it will face during the 21st century.
Notes:
Ted Tourian is a tax lawyer in New York City, and licensed in New York and California. The views expressed are solely his, and not attributable to any organization he may be affiliated with.
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Source: Armenian Weekly
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